BTX pricing intelligence

BTX pricing needs a source label, not just a number.

A visitor landing here should instantly understand the difference between a model price, compute floor, private bid, private ask, signed intent, and settled OTC trade. The public model is useful; executable liquidity still requires an RFQ.

Current public model snapshot

What btxprice.com says right now.

Source: btxprice.com · API: /api/current.json · Markdown: /api/current.md · Computed: 2026-07-17 06:20:09 UTC

Model spot

$1,190.9951

1,899,877.304 sats / BTX. This is a BTC-anchored model value, not a guaranteed fill.

Compute floor

$937.6029

Raw compute floor from the public model. Mining cost can anchor supply but cannot force demand.

12-month model

$3,831

Scenario-weighted estimate. Useful for discussion; too aggressive to present as executable OTC price.

BTX nonce rate

295.06M

One-week raw MatMul nonce-rate input; model version 1.7.5.

Visitor takeaway

The model gives orientation. The RFQ creates the market.

If someone wants to buy or sell real size, the page should push them to request a quote with side, size, timing, settlement constraints, and quote validity. That is how we turn attention into BTX inventory, buyer demand, and eventually more GPU/server budget.

Forward model: useful, but dangerous without context.

The btxprice.com API exposes a forward curve with spot, one-month, three-month, six-month, and twelve-month model values. That is exactly the kind of public data we should use — but BTXOTC should label it as a model snapshot, then separate it from executable bid/ask discovery.

HorizonUSD / BTXSats / BTXModel mcap
now $1,190.9951 1,899,877.3 $3,862,277,960
1m $1,388 2,214,548.9 $5,313,273,733
3m $1,885 3,007,512.8 $9,419,395,135
6m $2,717 4,334,124.4 $18,337,685,661
12m $3,831 6,110,958.4 $39,287,921,259

The BTX price-quality ladder.

Weak

Model value or chat indication

Useful for orientation, content, and mining math. Not executable. Should never be presented as a guaranteed market price.

Strong

Signed intent or completed settlement

Better evidence when size, timestamp, counterparties, expiry, settlement route, and completion are documented.

BTXOTC should use this ladder everywhere: model estimate < public indication < private bid/ask < signed intent < completed settlement. A price without size can mislead. A quote without expiry can go stale. A completed transfer without context may not represent the next executable market.

Better RFQs create better BTX pricing.

“Need some BTX” is weak. “Seeking 25k-50k BTX, staged settlement, quote valid 24 hours, pricing against current model minus/plus agreed spread if inventory is verified” is stronger. Better structure reduces spread and dispute risk because counterparties understand the real constraints.

  • State buy/sell side, desired size, acceptable range, timing, and quote validity.
  • Separate fixed quote, floating reference, and price-discovery request.
  • Record whether a number is model, indication, bid, ask, signed intent, or settled trade.
  • Keep public forms safe: no private keys, no seed phrases, no KYC uploads, no bank details.

The long-term product is a pricing evidence graph.

The pricing page should evolve into a public-facing evidence taxonomy: quote source, timestamp, side, size band, expiry, settlement method, proof rung, and whether the deal actually completed. That structure can eventually support dashboards and alerts without inventing a “spot price” before the market deserves one.

For conversion, the page should make the next action obvious: buyers request a live quote; sellers disclose available or future mined supply; miners use model/compute-floor inputs to decide when selling beats holding.

Disclosure: BTXOTC does not publish a guaranteed BTX price, does not guarantee fills, and does not recommend buying or selling. btxprice.com is a model/data source, not an executable OTC orderbook. Treat all non-settled quotes as indications until verified.